Whither Second Life?

The future is called "perhaps," which is the only possible thing to call the future.  And the only important thing is not to allow that to scare you.

Tennessee Williams

                                                                

This week, I’m going to do something a little different, at least for me. I’m going to speculate a bit about the future of Second Life (SL).  Let me put it another way, will this virtual world so many of us call home always be there when we’re looking for a break from Real Life (RL)? 

What led me here?  Well, first off, my original story for this week fell through at the last minute.  (Don’t worry, we’ll reschedule, it’ll be a great story! IMHO)  So, while surfing the Web searching for the next “big idea” I came across several stories either portending future difficulties for SL or stating outright there will be issues. 

Before I go any further, I want to warn everyone that this will not be another “the sky is falling” story about SL.  While uncertainty may be ahead inworld, life, whether SL or RL, is always about uncertainty.  I hope that those reading this blog will be motivated to become more involved inworld and bring their friends in with them. Without the residents participating and bringing their concerns to Linden Lab (LL), the end will not be good. 

OK, let me then get off my soapbox and get to the point. 

Three recent blog posts have caught my attention. 

First, Daniel Voyager has written about Tyche Shepherd’s recent analysis of the main grid regions total in SL dropping below 30,000 for the first time since January 2010.  Not just another interesting statistic, this tells of LL’s revenue base slowly receding.  A related point, LL has recently discontinued publication of its remaining inworld economic data.  I suspect that if this data had been positive, it would still be published. 

Then I came across Ariane Barne’s blog about virtual worlds being in decline.  She writes of the Golden Age of virtual worlds being behind us.  Ariane cites “boredom, social networking, and the influx of “free to play” MMORPGs which are learning to incorporate the social aspects that used to be exclusive to 3DVWs” as contributing to the demise of virtual worlds such as SL.

Finally, I dropped by Wagner James Au’s blog, New World Notes.  In a recent blog, he questions how can SL’s users be increasing while user concurrency remains static.  Wagner fairly observes how this can be so but notes that with the lack of data once available this is only supposition now. 

After reading these blogs and similar material on the Web, I’m seeing several trends that will affect SL and its communities.  Here’s my list:

·       LL is not making investments in its technology and infrastructure to permit a scalable solution

·       New SL products don’t really cut it (I’ve been to Realms and am underwhelmed.  I haven’t been to Wilderness yet but first reports say I’m not missing much.)

·       RL technology is changing (e.g., iPhones and iPads) but SL is still trapped in desktops and laptops.  (Now, there’s a slogan for a mass movement, “Free SL!”) 

·       LL acquisitions are in businesses moving away from SL (i.e., Little TextPeople)

Someone might ask (and, if they won’t, I will) what’s this all going to mean to SL’s communities and residents?  The answer – a lot.  I see three major issues arising from these insidious changes to SL. 

First, the communities that have been built and maintained by the many residents whom I’ve meeting and writing about are at risk.  Glorf Bulmer recently blogged about the social and creative aspects of SL that draw people to SL as opposed to social media like Facebook.  Where would all these residents go if SL went away?  World of Warcraft?  I don’t think so.  The community experience in SL would be hard to duplicate elsewhere.  For those who say simply go to Inworldz or Avination, I say good luck. Even if these worlds could handle the sudden influx of new members, the diaspora created by the closure of SL would, like so many others in RL history, would find themselves disconnected and adrift.  Cut off from friends.  Many would be lost along the way. Much culture and wealth would be lost along the way. 

Next, residents’ investments in the objects they’ve created would be lost.  How would the prims built over the years by so many be transferred elsewhere?  I’m not even sure it could even be done.  I cannot even begin to think of the total economic value created by all residents since the inception of SL.  If SL were to shut down, what would happen to all this value? 

Finally, let’s say that the last two scenarios don’t unfold, and I sincerely hope that they don’t, there is a third scenario and it’s not particularly pleasant. This last scenario is SL’s gaming gradually deteriorating until logging on is just not worth it anymore.  Can’t happen you say?  How many of you are encountering more lag than usual lately?  Been following the hubbub over the latest SL viewer release?  Or, SL’s attempts to discourage third party viewers (TPV)?  When was the last time you were bounced out of your inworld session? 

Hopefully, by now, I have your attention and you’re worried if not outright scared about the future of SL?  At the risk of sounding like an alarmist, there will be further signs of the end.  SL’s metrics will continue to deteriorate and will, in all likelihood, release less and less information about itself.  Transparency will be at an end.  LL will continue to make insufficient investments in its infrastructure and may even cut back from current levels of spend.  LL will also continue to experiment with non-SL ventures and be distracted from its core competency.  The inworld gaming experience will continue to deteriorate.  The openness of the platform will begin to be a thing of the past.  (Check with TPV developers for more on this.) 

Alright now, I’ve had my say.  I’ve vented my spleen.  Now what?  Do I leave my readers depressed and frightened?  Believe it or not that wasn’t my intent. I want to spend some time talking about what we, yes, we the SL community can do about all this because we can.  The cause is not yet lost. 

What can we do?

First, not only should only should we spend more time inworld, we need to bring others inworld with us.  Bring a friend!  If you don’t have a friend to bring along then go inworld and help the noobies who wandering about lost and wondering why they wasted their time signing up in the first place.

Become part of the community, blog or participate in the SL forums.  Go to social events inworld.  Step out of your comfort zone and do something inworld you wouldn’t do in RL.  Like go to a nudist function as I did a few weeks ago. 

Join a social movement inworld like Occupy Second Life.  Or, better yet, start a new movement!  With all that’s going on in RL these days, there’s certainly a lot to do something about. 

Then there’s LL itself.  They need to be more engaged and be made to understand the valuable brand that they have created.  If residents go away then who can blame LL for throttling back on their investments?  LL has to come back like they did during the so called Golden Age.  That means that we, the residents, need to reach out to them and bring them back before we lose them for good.

So, that’s my blog for this week.  What do you think?  Am I being an alarmist or is there a method to my madness?  I’m being serious this week and for that reason I’m including any pictures.  I don’t want to distract from my message. 

As always, I’m grateful to all for their kindness and time in stopping to talk with a stranger who was passing through their lives. 

I welcome feedback from readers, please either comment on my blog or e-mail me at webspelunker@gmail.com . 

     If you would like to read about my other adventures in Second Life please click here.

Occupy Second Life

The greatest revolution of our generation is the discovery that human beings, by changing the inner attitudes of their minds, can change the outer aspects of their lives

William James

Last night didn’t start well for me in Second Life (SL).  First, I’d decided to visit a site that I’d read about in two other blogs.  Sounded good and I expected to have some fun, learn something, and meet new residents.  These are my usual criteria for visiting a sim and having a story that my readers will like.  (At least, I hope that they will!)

Well, things didn’t go very well from the start for me.  I’m not giving the name of the sim because I couldn’t stay long enough to really get a feel for the place and meet anyone.  There’s also a cautionary tale here for anyone promoting an event inworld and any shopkeepers who may be paying fees to participate in such.  I would also like to point out to Linden Lab (LL) that inworld performance sometimes leaves a lot to be desired. 

First, upon rezzing in, I’m greeted by a note card asking that all unnecessary prims be removed from my avatar.  Hah! I thought.  They obviously don’t know what a low overhead character that I am.  Apparently, all sorts of bells and alarms will go off if someone tries to enter in all their sartorial elegance. Experiencing nothing more than a mere blink in the surrounding lighting, I smugly stride in. 

So far, so good. But, as I begin to enter shops and move further into the sim, I feel like I’m moving through molasses.  Lag strikes.  (Or more accurately, slowly brings everything to a halt.)  Then my SL Viewer (SLV) begins to hang.  Repeatedly.  I get bounced out.  I go back in.  Repeatedly.  (I’m always willing to take one for my readers.) 

I’m starting to get frustrated.  No, I am frustrated.  I’m beginning to realize what’s going on.  This event has been over promoted.  Logging into SL, I can see that the number of visitors is around thirty.  The excess prim warning should have alerted me.  There were many shops with merchandise and the streets were decorated in a type of urban punk.  This could have been a good experience but it wasn’t.  Someone should have been thinking about LL’s system constraints. 

I feel bad for the promoters and other participants because a lot of work and effort went into this prim.  Unfortunately, many people will not get to enjoy it.  I will try to go back before the sim closes to give a report.  I’m just not sure if my schedule will permit that.

My night continued to spiral out of control as in trying to get back to my SL home, I was bounced somewhere else.  I arrived in what looked like an airport lounge in a small, Midwest town.  (Trust me, I’ve been there.) 

Other residents are dropping in – literally.  Everyone is asking why they’re there and why can’t they leave.  I’m stuck too.  It’s like being in Penn Station in NYC when everything goes wrong with Amtrak and the LIRR simultaneously.  (Again, trust me, I’ve been there.)  

Never one to miss an opportunity, I try to engage my fellow travelers in conversation.  Which doesn’t go very well for me.  I start with something like “Hello” or “How are you doing?” and I’m still waiting for replies.  (Maybe it’s my looks?)

By now, I’m getting desperate.  I’m in SL Purgatory and I don’t have a story for this week’s blog.  The free drinks offered at the bar aren’t helping. 

Then I get a break. 

Scanning my friends on line list, I see that any1 gynoid is inworld. Not having spoken with her since prior to my hardware problems, I was glad to chat and catch up.  I was elated when I asked me to TP out of Purgatory to where she was and she agreed.  (any1, I owe you big time!)

I rezz into Madeleine’s in Angels Cove, a blues and jazz bar, where some very good music is playing and any1 is dancing with her friend ZenBeatz. 

any1 and I had been talking prior to my technical problems about using SL for community organizing to help residents who are dealing with Real Life (RL) issues arising from the global economic situation and political inequalities.  (More on this in future blogs.)  any1 is an inworld activist and an active participant in the Occupy Second Life (OSL) movement.    

any1 introduces me to Zen telling that Zen is one of the leading organizers of OSL in addition to being an activist in RL.  Zen and I have a lot to talk about with regard to the use of SL for community organizing in SL and we agree to meet later in the evening for an interview. 

We meet later at Osho Meditation Island.  This is a quiet place overlooking the sea well suited for an interview.  The interview is conducted in talk instead of my usual IM at Zen’s request. 

In RL, Zen is a RL activist who focuses on sustainability and forest preservation.  She started with OSL in February 2011 as a corollary to the RL Occupy Wall Street movement.  Self sufficiency, creative community, and creating systems that work are her interests. 

When money seemed to take over the world in the Eighties, Zen turned her back on it and began working on reforestation in RL.  After a personal loss in RL, Zen was looking to start afresh somewhere.  Her location away from major RL population centers led her to SL after a friend, inworld himself, had suggested she go back.  (Zen had been inworld before but hadn’t been very active.)  She wanted to create a virtual equivalent of RL.  A place where people could be taught what to do and then carry that forward to become self sufficient. 

Her goal in SL is to unite the avatars.  Once afraid of what computers might do to the workforce (i.e., ATM’s eliminating bank teller jobs), Zen now sees the Internet as permitting us to cross boundaries.  These are now thinner in cyberspace than they are in RL.  (For example, Zen is on the other side of the world while we conduct our interview, back in the day, the phone costs would have been prohibitive. Let alone, our being able to find one another in the first place.) She finds the Internet, and SL in particular, as a valuable tool to reconnect. 

Zen expresses concern over censorship and security for personal information on the Internet.  She believes that there is much media blackout over key issues like education and the corruption in legal systems to name but a few.

With help from any1 and other SL activists, Zen put on the twenty-four hour December 17^th Occupy Earth event in SL to raise funds in support of the Occupy Wall Street movement.  The event was a music and arts festival that succeeded in raising $400US which went for the gloves for the Wall Street Occupiers. 

Zen is now in the early stages of planning another OSL event for March 17^th which would mark the six month anniversary of the movement.  She’s hoping that this event will go across other virtual worlds in the Metaverse but it’s too soon to tell.  Music will be part of the program as Zen believes contemporary music is important to bringing in participants.  She’s right, most major social movements in RL history have had significant cultural components. 

Help is needed and Zen would be grateful if anyone interested in assisting her would drop her a note card inworld with their contact information.  Or, please pass her request along to those who may be able to help her.  I’ll be writing more about this upcoming event over the next several weeks. 

I take my leave of Zen and express my thanks for giving me so much of her time for a completely unscheduled interview.  I look forward to working with her and any1 as we develop a community organizing program to help those residents struggling with RL issues.  SL is a platform that I feel has been struggling lately for a reason to be.  We propose to bring that sense of purpose back. 

I also want to thank any1 again for saving me from a fate worse than death (at least in SL).

Finally, I continue to apologize to those whom I still may have appeared to have simply fallen off the grid.  I’m working my way back through my open commitments, albeit slowly.  I hope I haven’t caused any inconvenience and I look forward to seeing everyone again very soon!  As always, I’m open to any and all ideas for places to visit and people to meet. 

As always, I’m grateful to all for their kindness and time in stopping to talk with a stranger who was passing through their lives. 

I welcome feedback from readers, please either comment on my blog or e-mail me at webspelunker@gmail.com . 

     If you would like to read about my other adventures in Second Life please click here.

Photo No. 1: Osho Meditation Island

Photo No. 2: Madeleine’s

Photo No. 3: any1 Gynoid

Photo No. 4: ZenBeatz